2021 Gasparilla Bowl prediction, odds, line, spread: Florida vs. UCF picks, best bets from model on 43-30 run

An in-state rivalry could be brewing, and a pair of teams from the Sunshine State will meet in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl on Thursday. The UCF Knights (8-4) and Florida Gators (6-6) are set to meet for the third time in program history, and the Gators could improve to 3-0 in the all-time series with a victory. Head coach Gus Malzahn is wrapping up an up-and-down first season in Orlando, while the Gators will be led by interim head coach Greg Knox in this one. 

Kickoff at Raymond James Stadium slated for 7 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Gators as seven-point favorites in the latest Florida vs. UCF odds, while the over-under for total points is 55.5, down a point from the opening line. Before locking in any Florida vs. UCF picks or Gasparilla Bowl 2021 predictions, be sure to check out the betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters the second week of the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-30 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on UCF vs. Florida and locked in its Gasparilla Bowl 2021 picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s CFB picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for Florida vs. UCF: 

UCF vs. Florida spread: Gators -7 UCF vs. Florida over-under: 55.5 points UCF vs. Florida money line: Gators -270, Knights +220UCF: The Knights are 4-10 ATS in their previous 14 games FLA: The total has gone under in six of the Gators’ last nine games

Featured Game | Florida Gators vs. UCF Knights

Why UCF can cover

The Knights haven’t been super successful ATS this year, but the Gators have been outright horrendous against the number. Florida has failed to cover in six consecutive games. Florida went 0-5 ATS on the road this season, so getting the job done at a neutral venue could be challenging.

UCF is only 4-8 ATS overall but has covered three times in its previous six games. The Knights won straight up in five of those contests. Mikey Keene has held down the fort under center with Dillon Gabriel out, and the Knights have been just as productive as the Gators on offense. They average 32.2 points per game and have amassed 28 passing touchdowns with 25 rushing scores. Florida could need to break out of its offensive slump to cover. The Gators have scored 24 points or less in four of their last five games.

Why Florida can cover

Florida’s record against the spread is concerning, but UCF has been terrible as an underdog in 2021. The Knights have lost straight up and ATS in the two games they entered as underdogs this year. They lost both contests by 27 points or more, and the Gators could capitalize on their inability to rise to the occasion. 

The Gators have one of the nation’s most dynamic quarterbacks in Emory Jones. He’s thrown for 2,563 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2021. He’s also tallied a team-high 697 yards and four scores on the ground. Florida has won four of the five games he’s contributed to multiple touchdowns in by double-digits. Jones will certainly want to impress in his last game as a Gator, as he’s expected to enter the transfer portal after Florida’s bowl game. 

How to make UCF vs. Florida picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 56 points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the model’s Florida vs. UCF picks at SportsLine.

So who wins UCF vs. Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl 2021? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up almost $3,600 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.


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