The Atlanta Falcons will try to rebound from an ugly loss when they return home for a Thursday Night Football matchup with the New England Patriots. The Falcons (4-5) appeared to be making progress with three wins in four games before heading to Dallas last Sunday. There, they were held to 214 total yards in a lopsided 43-3 loss. The Patriots (6-4) have started rolling behind rookie quarterback Mac Jones and a stout defense and have won four straight. They also have won six matchups in a row against Atlanta, including a dramatic 34-28 overtime victory in Super Bowl LI after the 2016 season.
Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. New England is a seven-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Falcons odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 47. Before you lock in any Falcons vs. Patriots picks or any other Week 11 NFL predictions, you need to see which side red-hot SportsLine NFL expert Emory Hunt is backing.
Hunt is the founder and CEO of Football Gameplan, which has been supplying analysis of all levels of football since 2007, and a former running back at Louisiana-Lafayette. He knows the game from a player’s perspective.
In addition, Hunt has been locked in on the tendencies of both of these teams. He is an uncanny 17-4 in his last 21 spread picks involving the Falcons. His success on New England against-the-spread picks is equally impressive, as he is 13-4 on his last 17 picks on the Patriots. Anyone who has followed his advice is way up.
Now, Hunt has broken down Patriots vs. Falcons from every angle and just locked in his expert NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see his TNF picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Falcons vs. Patriots:
Patriots vs. Falcons spread: New England -7Patriots vs. Falcons over-under: 47Patriots vs. Falcons money line: New England -300, Atlanta +240 NE: Patriots are 10-7 against the spread in non-conference games since 2018 ATL: Falcons are 7-4 ATS as home underdogs since 2015
Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots
Why the Patriots can cover
New England is 6-0 against the spread in the last six meetings, covering in four straight in Atlanta. The combination of an offense that is coming to life behind Mac Jones and a defense that has been among the league’s best could make it a long night for the Falcons. New England is allowing just 17.7 points per game, second-fewest in the NFL, while Atlanta is scoring fewer than 20 points per game (25th). The Falcons also yield the second-most points (29.2) and face a Patriots offense that ranks seventh (27.5).
Jones has been growing in the offense and taking more shots downfield. He completed 19-of-23 passes (82.6 percent) for 198 yards and three TDs last week, while Rhamondre Stevenson had his first 100-yard game as New England rushed for 182 yards.
Why the Falcons can cover
Atlanta is 9-6 against the spread coming off a loss since the start of last season and has gone 5-1 against the number in non-conference games over that span. The offense led by quarterback Matt Ryan can cause trouble for defenses, especially with Kyle Pitts, who presents major matchup problems. A tight end with the skill of a wideout, Pitts has 417 yards over the past five games, posting 163 yards in one of them. He averages 15.1 yards per catch, with 11 of his 40 grabs going for more than 20.
The defense ranks 16th in the league against the pass (246.2 yards per game) and will make it a point to try to rattle Patriots quarterback Mac Jones. The rookie has seven interceptions and has been sacked 19 times.
How to make Patriots vs. Falcons picks
For Thursday Night Football, Hunt is leaning over on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s sharing what it is, and which side of the Falcons vs. Patriots spread to back, only at SportsLine.
So who wins Falcons vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Patriots spread you should jump on, all from the expert who is 30-8 on picks involving these teams, and find out.