Giants vs. Chiefs odds, spread, line: Monday Night Football picks, predictions by NFL model on 126-85 run

The Kansas City Chiefs will hope facing a mediocre team in front of the home crowd can bring hope when they host the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs (3-4) have struggled with turnovers and poor play on defense, and both were on display last week in a 27-3 loss to the Titans. Kansas City gave the ball away three times and Tennessee had 369 yards and converted on third down eight of 12 times. Now, the Chiefs are desperate for a win, but the Giants (2-5) are coming off their best game of the year, as they dominated Carolina in a 25-3 win last week. The teams have met just 14 times, but the Giants are 11-3 all-time against the Chiefs.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite in the latest Giants vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the Over-Under for total points scored is 52. Before you consider your Chiefs vs. Giants picks, you have to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,700 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 8 of the 2021 season on an incredible 126-85 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has broken down Monday night’s Giants vs. Chiefs matchup. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Giants:

Giants vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -10.5Giants vs. Chiefs over-under: 52 pointsGiants vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -550, New York +400Giants: New York is 12-4 against the spread as a road underdog since 2019Chiefs: Under has hit in last two Chiefs gamesWhy the Chiefs can cover

The favorite is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown 35 TD passes with only seven interceptions in 12 starts against NFC teams. He still has elite playmakers in receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, and they face a defense that allows 369 yards per game (20th in the league). Hill has had five straight games with at least five catches, while Kelce had eight receptions for 109 yards in his last game against the Giants. New York looked stout on D last week, but it had allowed 82 points in its previous two games.

The Chiefs still have the fourth-best passing offense in the league at 301 yards per game. The Giants score just 20 points per game, which ranks 25th, and are 26th in rushing yards (91.7 per game). That means the Chiefs can focus on the passing game and try to force quarterback Daniel Jones into mistakes.

Why the Giants can cover

Quarterback Daniel Jones is 10-3 against the spread as a road underdog in his career and faces a defense that has been among the worst in the NFL. The Chiefs are allowing a league-high 6.6 yards per play. Receiver Darius Slayton returned from injury last week and had five catches for a team-high 63 yards. Dante Pettis also had five receptions, scored a TD and threw for another, while tight end Evan Engram had a season-high six catches.

New York is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings, and the defense also should have confidence going against a team that leads the NFL in turnovers. The Chiefs have turned it over 17 times, while no other team has more than 12. Rookie Azeez Ojulari had 2.5 sacks last week to give him 5.5 for the season, and Leonard Williams has a sack in three of the last four games. Patrick Mahomes has been hauled down 14 times and has nine interceptions.

How to make Giants vs. Chiefs picks

The model has zeroed in on Monday Night Football’s Giants vs. Chiefs matchup. It’s leaning Under the total, with the model suggesting both offenses will be one-dimensional. It also says that one side of the spread is hitting well over than 50 percent of the time. You can only get these picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Giants on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Chiefs vs. Giants spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 126-85 roll on its top-rated NFL picks.


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