Iowa vs. Wisconsin odds, line: 2021 college football picks, Heartland Trophy predictions from proven model

The ninth-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes will try to stay in the hunt for the Big Ten West title when they visit Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday to face the Wisconsin Badgers. The Hawkeyes (6-1) suffered a disappointing 24-7 loss to Purdue but had a week to recover and prepare for this battle for the Heartland Trophy. Iowa is tied at the top of the division with Minnesota and will meet the Gophers in two weeks. First, it needs to get past the Badgers (4-3), who have won three straight and ran wild against Purdue in a 30-13 victory last week. The Boilermakers had moved to No. 25 after their win against the Hawkeyes, and Wisconsin’s three losses have come against ranked teams.

Kickoff in Madison, Wis., is set for noon ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Badgers as three-point favorites in the latest Iowa vs. Wisconsin odds, and the over-under for total points scored is 36.5, the lowest total of the season thus far. Before making any Wisconsin vs. Iowa picks, be sure to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,900 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 9 of the 2021 season on a 26-11 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now the model has dialed in on Iowa vs. Wisconsin and just revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of the model’s CFB picks. Now, here are the college football odds and trends for Wisconsin vs. Iowa:  

Iowa vs. Wisconsin spread: Badgers -3Iowa vs. Wisconsin over-under: 36.5 pointsIowa vs. Wisconsin money line: Iowa +145, Badgers -170Iowa: The Hawkeyes are 12-8 ATS vs. ranked opponents since 2016.Wisconsin: The Badgers are 29-26-2 ATS as a favorite since 2016.

Featured Game | Wisconsin Badgers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Why Iowa can cover

Iowa has covered the spread in five straight on the road, and the underdog is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings. The Hawkeyes defense has been top-notch, creating turnovers and not allowing points. Opponents are scoring just 14.3 per game (third in FBS), and Iowa is second in the nation with 20 takeaways. That spells trouble for Wisconsin, which has turned the ball over 28 times in its last 12 games. The Badgers score just 21.1 points per contest (110th), and their only offense is on the ground, but the Hawkeyes rank seventh against the run (89.7 yards per game).

The Hawkeyes will be rested and have few injuries, while the Badgers have a lengthy list of hobbled players. UW has faced Iowa four times as an unranked team in the past 20 years and lost each time. The Hawkeyes cruised to a 28-7 win in the last meeting, holding the Badgers to 225 total yards. Iowa QB Spencer Petras threw for 211 and running back Tyler Goodson had 106 yards. Turnovers are likely to play a big role Saturday, and while the Hawkeyes coughed the ball up four times against Purdue, they had only five turnovers through the first six games. 

Why Wisconsin can cover

Wisconsin has won seven of the past nine meetings and holds a 48-44-2 edge in the all-time series. It is 10-6 against the spread in its past 16 when coming off a victory, and it ran through the Boilermakers last week. Purdue had minus-13 rushing yards while the Badgers put up 290, with Chez Mellusi running for 149 and Braelon Allen adding 140 on just 12 carries. Iowa is tough against the run, but the Badgers average 218.4 yards per game on the ground (19th in FBS). Mellusi and Allen have combined for 1,120 yards (5.6 per carry) and nine touchdowns.

The Badgers defense is even more stingy against the run. It is the best in the nation, allowing 53.3 rushing yards per game. The unit also yields just 18.4 points (17th in FBS) on average. It faces an Iowa offense that ranks 100th or lower in all yardage statistics, and the Hawkeyes score just 28 per game (75th) despite getting help from three defensive TDs. The Badgers picked off three passes last week, and Leo Chenal had 3.5 sacks. Fellow linebackers Jack Sanborn (34 tackles) and Nick Herbig (3.5 sacks) also make big plays all over the field.            

How to make Wisconsin vs. Iowa picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 29 points. It also has an against-the-spread pick that cashes in 70 percent of simulations. Head to SportsLine to see that pick.

So who wins Iowa vs. Wisconsin? And which side is covering 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is on a 26-11 run on top-rated picks, and find out.


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