2021 NFL pick ’em: Over/unders are hard


In previous iterations of a post where I do NFL picks, I did every game against the spread. That was basically impossible, so I tried switching it up and diversifying what wagers I looked at. In some ways it’s been good, in other ways it’s been terrible.

It turns out I cannot for the life of me pick NFL over/unders. I’m going to continue doing it for the sake of the post, but my goodness I will never go to a book and wager on one. The good news is if you fade my over/unders you’d be 8-4 this year.

Odds are provided by Tipico.

To the picks!

Every game straight up

Kareem Elgazzar / USA TODAY NETWORK

Jaguars at Bengals

Colts at Dolphins

Browns at Vikings

Texans at Bills

Chiefs at Eagles

Lions at Bears

Titans at Jets

Giants at Saints

Washington at Falcons

Panthers at Cowboys

Seahawks at 49ers

Cardinals at Rams

Ravens at Broncos

Steelers at Packers

Buccaneers at Patriots

Raiders at Chargers

Last week: 10-6

Season: 28-22

Picks against the spread

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Texans (+17.5) at Bills

Buffalo might win this one by 40, but getting 17.5 points is the move just on principle.

Chiefs (-6.5) at Eagles

Kansas City is going to have a bounce-back week eventually and Philadelphia looked mostly bad against Dallas. The Chiefs should put up a ton of points.

Lions (+2.5) at Bears

Divisional games are always interesting and the Lions have been better than their 0-3 record. Plus, does anyone trust Matt Nagy to maximize an offense with Justin Fields at the helm?

Buccaneers (-6.5) at Patriots

Tampa Bay is way better than New England and this spread should probably be closer to 9 or 10.

Last week: 1-2

Season: 4-5

Over/Unders

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs at Eagles, over 54.5

While Kansas City might put up a ton of points, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts could cause some real problems for the Chiefs’ defense.

Texans at Bills, over 46.5

Houston might only score 10, but Buffalo should put up 40.

Titans at Jets, under 44.5

Story continues

No AJ Brown and no Julio Jones for the Titans means this one has all the earmarks of a knock-down, drag-out, low-scoring game.

Steelers at Packers, under 44.5

The under is 3-0 in Steelers games this season, and a healthy TJ Watt could cause some problems for a Green Bay offense that’s been rolling the last couple weeks.

Last week: 1-4

Season: 4-8

Lock of the week

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Buccaneers (-6.5) at Patriots

It feels like there’s no chance Tampa Bay lets this game stay close after losing in Los Angeles last week.

Last week: 0-1

Season: 2-1

Upset of the week

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Seahawks (+110) at 49ers

If George Kittle doesn’t play it’s hard to imagine San Francisco keeping up with a Seahawks offense that can put up points in bunches.

Last week: 1-0

Season: 1-2

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